Why Saints will win: Sharper, defense will be on the ball

Enlarge By Chris Graythen, Getty Images Darren Sharper's knack for game-changing plays on defense could be the difference if the New Orleans Saints take down the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. Opportunity is knocking more loudly than a brass band on Bourbon Street for the New Orleans Saints, who, after 43 mostly forgettable years in the NFL, can finally deliver a Super Bowl title to the Crescent City with one more victory Sunday against theIndianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. But producing the mother of all victory parades for the Big Easy certainly won't be easy. To take advantage of said opportunity, the Saints will need to rely on their signature opportunism and dynamism. WHY THE COLTS WILL WIN: It starts and ends with Peyton Manning SUPER BOWL PICKS: USA TODAY crew calls the winner The New Orleans defense can provide the sweet taste of a Cafe Du Monde beignet but can alternately (and frequently) cause more heartburn than a heaping helping of jambalaya. And Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning is certain to dig in against a 26th-ranked pass defense that allowed 235.6 yards a game this season, even though it faced mostly pedestrian passers outside of the New England Patriots' Tom Brady and the Dallas Cowboys' Tony Romo. Considering thePhiladelphia Eagles' Kevin Kolb and the Atlanta Falcons' Chris Redman feasted on the Saints, Manning must be licking his chops. But New Orleans has to use that likelihood to its advantage. All-pro safety Darren Sharper intercepted nine passes this season and returned three for touchdowns amid his record 376 interception return yards. That's the kind of momentum-swinging, game-altering play that could decide the Super Bowl. And it's not far-fetched for a team that forced 39 turnovers, second best in the league this season, and will probably see a Miami sky raining footballs. Matters will certainly be helped if defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' troops — notably defensive end Will Smith— can bring Manning to his knees a few times, as Williams has hinted they will. The New York Jets got to Manning early in the AFC Championship Game, and the Colts offense stumbled and sputtered for most of the first half. If New Orleans can replicate that start and give its supercharged offense time to build a more imposing lead than the 17-6 advantage the Jets managed, Indianapolis will be in trouble. But the New Orleans offense must hold up its part of the bargain, too, and balance should be the blueprint. The Saints are at their best when their trio of complementary tailbacks —Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell — get involved early, enabling quarterback Drew Brees to start lofting lollipops over overburdened eight-man fronts. But the team struggled late in the season when Brees was firing away too frequently— he averaged nearly 43 pass attempts a game as the team struggled to go 2-2 in December. That won't do against the Colts, who surrender 4.3 yards a carry and allowed more than 2,000 rushing yards this season, even though they often played from ahead when their opponents were hard-pressed to stay committed to the run. Softening up Indianapolis' middle should expose the flanks to Brees' pinpoint arm, which clicked at a 70% success rate this season. The Colts don't really have a lockdown cornerback, and their secondary will likely be even more vulnerable if injured all-pro defensive end Dwight Freeney (ankle) is unable to generate the pressure he normally provides. That means time for Brees to pick on rookie cornerbacks Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers — if he's able to overcome a foot injury to get into the lineup — on the edges while giving tight end Jeremy Shockey and Bush room to roam in the middle, where his game-breaking moves could leave a few Colts defenders needing new horseshoes. A little patience and a little pilfering Sunday, and no one will be asking "Who dat?" when the Saints come marching home anymore.