World Cup 2010: Holland and Spain compete to shed 'underachievers' tag

Sunday's World Cup final will give either Spain or Holland the chance to finally shed that most unwanted of tags – 'underachievers'. But which other sportsmen and teams have failed to make their most of their abilities?

Disbelief: Colin Montgomerie will forever remember his loss at the 2006 US Open

New Zealand All Blacks
Convincingly beat France in the first ever Rugby World Cup by 20 points in 1987. But in the last two decades, the All Blacks have coasted against their rivals before coming unstuck in the one tournament that matters. One final defeat, three semi-finals losses and a insipid showing at the 2007 World Cup when they lost to France pay testament to that.

Marat Safin
Despite being regarded as one of the most gifted players of the last decade, the Russian never lived up to the billing. He broke rackets – over 700 during a 12-year career – but should have won more than his two Grand Slam titles. Played four finals in all, had a wicked serve and finally called time in 2009. "I can’t complain, I’ve managed to do pretty well in my career.”

Colin Montgomerie
Captured seven consecutive Order of Merits on the European Tour but will forever be remembered for losing two play-offs and finishing runner-up five times in Majors, as well as losing his rag on a number of occasions. The 2006 US Open defeat when he scuffed his approach to the 18th was the closest he came, ending with a double-bogey six and tied for second.

South Africa's ODI team
Despite chasing down 435 to beat Australia in 2006, the South Africans have failed win an international one-day series – despite being blessed with technically brilliant players and world-beating all-rounders. In 1999 they tied with Australia in the World Cup semi-final after panicking in the final over. The Proteas needed only 126 to beat India on run rate at the 2007 Twenty20 World Cup and make the semi-finals but fell 10 runs short. And in the 50-over World Cup the same year they were thrashed by Australia in the semi-finals after a disastrous change in tactics.

Jimmy White
Underachiever or great sporting choker? The highly-popular Londoner, nicknamed The Whirlwind, lost in six World Championship finals during an entertaining career. The biggest chance came in the 1994 final when he missed a routine black of its spot when locked at 17-17 against Steven Hendry. Afterwards White joked that the Scot was "beginning to annoy" him. But the disappointment was evident that night in Sheffield.

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England v Bangladesh - live!

Ian Bell: Time to step up. Photograph: Matthew Lewis/Getty Images

11th over, Bangladesh 60-1, Kayes 13, Siddique 12: Broad returns and immediately Siddique drives down to long on for a four. Simple boundary - the first since the third over - with no England fielder there. And there's another boundary, Broad's delivery too short, glancing off Kayes' gloves behind the wicket and over Kieswetter's desperate, flailing jump. Broad's having a bit of a stinker in this over, Kayes edging him and taking advantage of there being no slip. Another four. "No, no," says John Starbuck. :Imax makes you look bigger, not 3D. About twenty feet tall in some versions. Even IRon Bell would be a giant. To some, he already is. Metaphorically."

10th over, Bangladesh 47-1, Kayes 9, Siddique 3: Something approaching drama there, as Bresnan's ball is touched away by Siddique who decides to run - Bell storms in and tries to run out Kayes, who just gets to the crease in time. Not out. England appeal for lbw again, but Bresnan's ball to Siddique is comfortably outside the line of leg stump. I think we're going to see some powerplay now. "If the number of people actually at Trent Bridge is any indication, there aren't too many people bothered about watching cricket in 3D," parps Erik Petersen.

9th over, Bangladesh 43-1, Kayes 9, Siddique: After the blistering early start by England, this is quite muted now. Broad menaces Siddique with a bouncer that he tries to divert away to leg gully, but he gets nothing on it - lucky because it went straight into the hands of Kieswetter. David Lloyd feels the wides are due to England bowling a tad too straight. Maybe, he probably knows more than me. "What's the octopus' verdict on this match?" asks Gary Naylor. He says it hasn't got going yet.

8th over, Bangladesh 43-1, Kayes 9, Siddique 1: Nothing doing here, apart from another wide, England's fifth. Bresnan, with a good length, isn't offering Bangaldesh much to get too jiggy with and England have loosened up. "John Starbuck's gnomic comment about 3D cricket making "little blokes feel good about themselves." Could he elucidate? asks Stephen Cummings. "At 5' 6" I presume I am one of the little fellows of whom he speaks, yet fail to see how watching the great game in 3D would have a beneficial effect on my self esteem." You tell me Stephen. You tell me.

7th over, Bangladesh 42-1, Kayes 9, Siddique 1: That was probably the right decision, the techie wizards showing the ball was just about destined for the stumps. How will they react now? Tamim was, up until that point, spanking England round the park. Siddique gets off the mark, glancing Broad away for a single. "I am not 3D-Ready, nor am I England-Ready in any sporting contextafter our football display," says Ian Copestake. "The people of Trent Bridge are also not convinced that our prowess is anything other than an artifically generated illusion enhanced by the wearing of glasses."

Wicket! Tamim (28) lbw b Broad Broad comes back into the attack at the start of the seventh over and with his first ball he ends Tamsim's reign of terror. A full delivery tempted Tamim to try the drive, but the delivery was too pacy for him, and it went straight into his pads, probably the right decision to dismiss him. In comes Junaid Siddique.

6th over, Bangladesh 40-0, Tamim 28, Kayes 8: A decent over here from Bresnan, conceding few runs until sending a fourth ball wide to gift another single. But Kayes is certainly not flourishing as much as Tamim yet, despite an impressive drive away to square leg.

5th over: Bangladesh 37-0, Tamim 27, Kayes 7: Stuart Broad comes into the attack now for England. England have squeezed their fielding positions a little. Broad's run-up is ominous and laced with intent but his first delivery is judged to have flown wide by Nigel Llong. And again, another wide. England's bowlers are not on form so far. And on the fourth ball, Tamim sweeps the ball off to deep gully, and Ian Bell scampers off, just about preventing another four. England still aren't finding a way to contain him. "3D will find its niche, just like Imax did - specialist format for a keen minority," says John Starbuck. "I don't think I'd want to see cricket at more than life-size, though it could help little blokes feel good about themselves."

4th over: Bangladesh 31-0 Tamim 23, Hayes 7: Bresnan's back and his first ball is pulled away for a pair to gully by Hayes. Not much doing for the rest of the over though, Bresnan troubling Kayes a little more with his next few balls. "I saw one of those football matches screened in 3D in a pub a couple of months back," says Andy in Tooting. "It was OK, but I will confess that the mixture of midday drinking and the ball seemingly about to hit me in the face was a bit too much. So I closed one of my eyes and went back to 2D. Simple."

3rd over, Bangladesh 28-0, Iqbal 23, Kayes 2: There's a nice symmetry to Bangladesh's batting so far - 11 off Anderson and 11 off Bresnan. England are pretty wayward so far and Strauss looks a little troubled by Bangladesh's decent early start. This is a quieter over though, Anderson finding more length with his deliveries and Tamim and Hayes have to settle for a couple of singles only.

2nd over, Bangladesh 22-0, Tamim 20, Kayes 1: Tim Bresnan comes in for Anderson but his delivery is short and wide and Iqbal again drives it away for four. And another four! This time Tamim sweeps behind and England are on the run here early on. You'd think Iqbal might give his batting partner, Kayes, a chance, but oh no! Selfish, if you ask me. A single gives Kayes, another left-hander, his chance to shine now but he's not as flashy as Tamim, settling for a mere single on his first ball with a sweep to square leg. "Not the best picture you could chose of the Shermanator," says Andy Stiff. "It looks like he's been bowled in it." There's a fair chance he was.

1st over, Bangladesh 11-0, Tamim 11, Kayes 0: James Anderson gets us off, and Tamim Iqbal begins as he means to go on, smacking the ball away with a square drive to cover for a four with his first shot. And again he repeats the trick, this time just letting the delivery fly away off the side of his bat and finding the boundary. Not the greatest start for Anderson on a pitch that may favour Tamim. This is quite the onslaught from Iqbal, and Anderson has a puzzled look on his face already. He finishes up with a single.

Here come the teams. England are in a huddle. Intimidating. Jerusalem blares out over the tannoy - Trent Bridge looks pretty empty.

Anyone like 3D?

"3D cricket on Sky Sports is far more terrifying than Jaws, simply down to the protruding nature of Nasser Hussain's nose," offers David Dickson. "I'd keep ducking."

"For the past how ever many months, I've had to put up with my work colleague banging on about how 3D is the future of television and how he is definitely going to buy a 3D TV," blasts Matthew Turland. "Personally, I think it is a gimmick used by films that aren't good enough to keep you interested with their plot and nothing would give me greater pleasure than shoving a pair of 3D specs down his throat. As you can guess, I'm a little frustrated today so I'm glad the cricket is back to help me wind down a bit. And for the record, Avatar is just Dances With Wolves in space."

Weather update: It's a hot day at Trent Bridge but there's a bit of a breeze going - Sir Ian Botham says there's a lot of bounce in the pitch, which may well favour England's attack.

The weather. Photograph: BBC

More on 3D: "I'm not even bothered about HD let alone 3D," says Lori McConnachie. "We all know it's not real. Like Shane Warne's 'hair'."

Today's teams:

England: Andrew Strauss (captain), Craig Kieswetter (wk), Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood, Eoin Morgan, Michael Yardy, Luke Wright, Tim Bresnan, James Tredwell, Stuart Broad, James Anderson.

So, as expected, Ian Bell comes in for Kevin Pietersen. James Tredwell replaces the rested Graeme Swann.

Bangladesh: Tamim Iqbal, Imrul Kayes, Junaid Siddique, Raqibul Hasan, Shakib Al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), Mahmudullah, Faisal Hossain, Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Abdur Razzak, Shafiul Islam.

Umpires Asad Rauf (Pakistan) and NJ Llong, TV umpire, RK Illingworth,Match referee J Srinath (India),
Reserve umpire RA Kettleborough.

An email: "I saw Jaws 3 many moons ago in 3D," writes Tom Banks. "You first had to get the specs from the back of a Shredded Wheat packet if I remember correctly. Both the film and the specs were rubbish. However, I look forward to a "3D reboot" of Jaws where you are practically swimming with the malcontent fish."

Bangladesh have won the toss and have chosen to bat. 1-0 them. Ballsy.

England of course made sure that series win over Australia didn't look too accomplished - keep everyone on their toes - by losing the final two matches. 5-0 would have been a little too special. Keep it at 3-2. Retain a smidgen of calamity. Bangladesh, meanwhile, haven't won an international game yet this year, and that may not change here ...

David Gower's just appeared on my screen and he's just arrogantly announced that this match is being shown in 3D. Not in King's Cross it's not, Gower. Anyone seen anything in 3D? I refused to see Avatar because it sounded like two hours of The Smurfs in 3D.

Afternoon. So this is weird. In this country of self-loathing and under-achievement and sporting ineptitude, it turns out we are actually quite proficient at something. Cricket. One-day cricket at that. Fresh from sort-of-thumping Australia 3-2 in their ODI series over the past couple of weeks, England are now Kings of the World! Feels odd, doesn't it? Not quite right. So that's where we are - and now it's Bangladesh, sure to be England's latest ODI victims. England should win this comfortably today, but then I feel that prediction was made a couple of times rather brashly during the month of June (let's not go there).

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Radio industry supports 2015 switchover

The radio industry has given its support for culture minister Ed Vaizey's commitment for the digital radio switchover to commence in the UK by 2015.

Later today, Vaizey will say in a speech that the switch from analogue to digital radio will begin within the next five years, but an exact date will depend on the takeup of digital services.

The minister will also unveil a digital radio action plan covering a range of areas to prepare British consumers and the radio industry for the switch to digital.

In response, various radio industry organisations have expressed their support for the coalition government's stance on the switchover, reports The Guardian.

Digital Radio UK, the body responsible for overseeing the radio switch, said that Vaizey's commitment is a firm signal that "radio has a digital future".

"We welcome confirmation of the new government's strong support for digital radio and the publication of the joint industry and government action plan. It gives us the certainty we need that radio has a digital future," said Digital Radio UK chief executive Ford Ennals.

"The focus on consumers, coverage and cars is vital and Digital Radio UK looks forward to working with government and industry to ensure the UK is ready for digital radio switchover."

BBC director of audio and music Tim Davie also welcomed Vaizey's commitment to the 2015 switchover target, which was first laid out in the Digital Britain report last year.

"We welcome the government's commitment to radio's digital future and the importance they have placed on the listener in any future switchover," he said.

"The BBC will, along with Digital Radio UK, work closely with government and the rest of the radio sector to deliver the action plan."

After all the national and regional stations have made the switch to digital-only platforms after 2015, the remaining FM signal would most likely be used for ultra-local radio services.

Andrew Harrison, chief executive of commercial radio trade body Radio Centre, said that the new coalition government clearly recognises the benefits of digital radio for listeners.

"Certainty around the roadmap to digital radio switchover will help all stations within the commercial sector to invest in the future, with larger stations migrating solely to the digital platform, while smaller stations continue broadcasting on FM," he added.

The switchover is expected to result in around 100 million analogue radio sets being left obsolete and around 30m car radios needing to be converted or replaced.

Paul Smith, general manager of digital radio manufacturer Pure, said that there have previously been "confusing messages" around switchover.

However, he claimed that Vaizey's commitment today gives "much needed clarity to consumers and the radio industry as a whole".

"It allows us to push ahead our digital radio plans with certainty in the UK and internationally where governments in other countries have made similar commitments," he said.

"Pure will work closely with other radio industry stakeholders to help deliver the government's action plan.
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In Turner's Record-Breaking Sale, Further Signs of a Troubled Market

LONDON — A world record was set for Turner on Wednesday night when a landscape, “Modern Rome. Campo Vaccino,” was sold for £29.72 million, or $45 million. The large canvas, 90.2 by 122 centimeters (35 by 48 inches), was acquired by the J. Paul Getty Museum in Los Angeles bidding through Hazlitt, Gooden & Fox, the London dealers specializing in Old Masters and 19th century painting.

The panoramic view was done by the English painter from memory, without paying much attention to the many precise sketches that he had done in the course of his various trips to Rome. It is an impressionistic evocation of the city bathed in a golden sunset haze touched with salmon pink, and some liberties are taken with topography.

Very few Turners of this size and caliber remain in private hands — five or six at the most, according to David Moore-Gwyn, Sotheby’s distinguished expert in British painting. This one was acquired directly from the artist when it was included in the Royal Academy show of 1839. The buyer, Hugh A.J. Munro of Novar, was a close friend of the artist and the executor of his estate who oversaw the vast bequests made by his late friend to the National Gallery, which together with the Tate Gallery holds the largest collection of Turners in the world. “Modern Rome. Campo Vaccino” remained in Munro’s family until April 6, 1878, when his collection was dispersed at Christie’s London. It was then bought by Archibald, the fifth earl of Rosebery, and his wife Hannah (née Rothschild), for 4,450 guineas, a huge price at the time. The landscape remained in the hands of their descendants until a family trust consigned it this year to Sotheby’s.

The historical background of the picture, preserved unlined in its plaster gilt and glazed frame, played its part in the enormous interest aroused.

The price is in line with the previous record set when another large painting, a Venetian view of “Giudecca, la Donna della Salute and San Giorgio” appeared at Christie’s New York on April 6, 2006, where it fetched $35.85 million.

The likelihood of another Turner of remotely comparable importance tumbling into the market in the near future is slim. While Wednesday’s picture cannot really compare with the greatest Turners in which the visible world is reduced to luminous impressions, now in the two London museums, a few professionals seemed disappointed that it had not gone for even more.

Awareness of a unique opportunity regarding the work of the greatest British painter of all times and of the urgency of acting there and then was evidently a factor in the wise decision of the Los Angeles museum’s board of trustees to go all out, despite the current mood favoring austerity and financial restraint.

If confirmation was needed that major paintings by great masters of the European past are vanishing, Sotheby’s sale provided sad evidence to that effect. So few Old Masters now tumble onto the market that both Sotheby’s and Christie’s feel the need to hold combined sales of Old Masters and 19th century works in order to fill their catalogs with enough paintings. In addition, they pad them by throwing in drawings.

Even so, Sotheby’s “Old Master & British Paintings” was astonishingly short on works of reasonably good quality. Dealers fought tooth and nail over the very few paintings that deserved serious consideration.

Every now and then, discoveries are made of previously unrecorded pictures, but there are not enough of these to make up for the drying of supplies.

One such case in Sotheby’s Wednesday sale was the view of a “Guardroom Interior with a self portrait of the artist” by the Flemish artist David Teniers the Younger. This previously unknown picture had been in the possession of the same French family since at least the early 19th century.

Like the Turner, the David Teniers the Younger was spared the many varnishings and restorations that have altered the original appearance of so many pictures. Added to the support, copper, which does not chemically interact with paint and does not absorb it over time, accounts for its remarkable freshness. In earlier days, not much attention would have been given to a Teniers the Younger. This week, novelty and perfect condition induced Johnny Van Haeften, the leading British dealer in Flemish and Dutch paintings, to pay £397,250 for this genre scene painted in the 1640s. The price was within the estimate printed by Sotheby’s.

But when one of the few important north European school pictures came up later, intense competition broke out. Isack van Ostade, the Dutch landscape artist from Haarlem, is famous for his winter scenes. One of these was titled in Sotheby’s catalog “A Frozen River Landscape with a Waggoner Halted at an Inn and a Horse Pulling a Laden Sleigh off the Ice in the Foreground.” Signed in full and dated 1644, it ranks among Van Ostade’s most accomplished landscapes, exceptionally rich in its rendition of village life.

Sotheby’s expected the Van Ostade to sell between £600,000 and £800,000 plus the sale charge in excess of 12 percent. To win the contest, Mr. Van Haeften had to pay £1.83 million, doubling Sotheby’s high estimate. On a more modest financial scale, the price here too reflects awareness that when the opportunity arises to acquire a significant picture by a master from past centuries, it would be unwise to pass as long as your budget can bear the strain of footing the bill
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Man Group sees further institutional outflows

Man Group has seen continued outflows from its institutional book despite its flagship AHL strategy delivering positive returns over the last quarter.

The London-listed group revealed that institutional funds under management fell from $12.6 billion at the end of March to $11.4 billion on June 30, in a trading update.

Overall funds under management fell from $39.4 billion to $38.5 billion although retail assets were up slightly at $27.1 billion from $26.8 billion at the end of March.

Peter Clarke (pictured), chief executive of Man Group, said that its AHL strategy delivered a 0.9% return in the second quarter compared to a 11.6% fall in world stockmarkets and its distribution network was growing.

‘Our recently expanded Ucits product range has now raised over $350m in Europe and we have new onshore initiatives in Brazil, South Korea and Singapore,’ he said.

Clarke added that the proposed acquisition of GLG is ‘proceeding according to plan’.

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Sangin: a province blighted by conflict

Sangin has seen some of the bloodiest fighting of the conflict in Afghanistan.

Of the 312 British troops to have died in Afghanistan since 2001, 99 were killed in the area.

The Sangin Qala district of Helmand Province is home to around 50,000 people, 14,000 of whom live in the area’s main town, Sangin.

With its fertile poppy fields, Sangin is a key location for Afghanistan’s opium trade, whilst its close proximity to the country’s main highway also makes it a centre of smuggling.

The area has long been blighted by a weak government and infighting between communities, linked to the decline of the tribal system during the civil war in the 1990s. These regional conflicts are believed to fuel local support for the Taliban.

Many residents feel the British have done too little to restore the rule of law.

Haji Akhatar Mohammad, an elder from Bostan Zoi village said: “The British had been there for a long time. They were not helpful and there was no good result from them. They didn’t understand the people and there was too much fighting.

“People are happy the British are moving,”

Sangin is situated in the south west of Afghanistan, in the valley of the Helmand River, at around 800m above sea level.

British forces handed over the neighbouring province of Musa Qala to the US in March. The area also neighbours US occupied Kajaki, home of the Kajaki dam – one of two major Hydroelectric dams in the Helmand province.

Lashkar Gah, the capital of the Helmand Province is almost 100km north west of Sangin.

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Terror suspect Abid Naseer held on US warrant

The US authorities want Mr Naseer to face trial

The alleged leader of an al-Qaeda plot to bomb British targets, who won the right to stay in the UK, has been arrested.

Abid Naseer was held after the United States issued a warrant for his arrest.

The US Justice Department has linked a failed plot to bomb the New York subway to the alleged UK conspiracy.

They believe senior figures in al-Qaeda had co-ordinated both operations from Pakistan.

Mr Naseer will be accused of conspiring alongside other al-Qaeda suspects to bomb the New York subway system last year.

Senior officials in the US said the plot was one of the most dangerous since the 9/11 terror attacks.

Two men have admitted planning to detonate home-made suicide bombs and a third waiting for trial.

Several suspects remain on the run, possibly along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Court appearance

A special immigration court in Britain had said Mr Naseer, 24, was an al-Qaeda operative - but could not be deported because he faced torture or death in Pakistan.

He was arrested last year as part of a massive counter-terrorism operation in Liverpool and Manchester.

He was among 10 Pakistani nationals arrested.

The security services believed the men were planning to attack within days of their arrest, but Mr Naseer was not charged.

He is due to appear before the City of Westminster Magistrates' Court later on Wednesday after the US authorities requested his extradition so that he can face trial.

Mr Naseer, who used to live in Manchester, is accused of supporting a foreign terrorist organisation and conspiracy to use a destructive device.

A spokesman for the Metropolitan Police said: "Officers from the Metropolitan Police Service's Extradition Unit and the North East Counter Terrorism Unit have this afternoon arrested a man in the north-east of England.

Security threat

"Abid Naseer, 24, has been arrested in the United Kingdom pursuant to a provisional arrest warrant issued on July 7, 2010, at the request of the United States government.

"Naseer's extradition is sought by the United States government for the purposes of standing trial."

Mr Naseer won his appeal to stay in the UK in May although the Special Immigration Appeals Commission (Siac) said it believed Mr Naseer had posed a serious threat to national security.

It found he had been sending e-mails to an "al-Qaeda operative" in Pakistan - the e-mails were said to be at the heart of a plot to bomb targets in north-west England.

But Mr Justice Mitting said it would be wrong to return him to Pakistan.

At the time, Home Secretary Theresa May said she was disappointed but would not be appealing against the ruling.

She said: "We are now taking all possible measures to ensure they do not engage in terrorist activity."

The coalition government later announced it was to create a commission to review the UK's Human Rights Act.

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Cuba to free some political prisoners

Cuba has been facing pressure to release dissidents since political prisoner Orlando Zapata Tamayo died from a hunger strike (Reuters: Enrique De La Osa)

The Communist government in Cuba has announced that it will release more than 50 political prisoners, which some analysts say is a sign of change in the regime.

Since Fidel Castro handed power to his brother Raul two years ago, there has been hope that the Communist regime in Cuba may soften and yesterday's release of five political prisoners is being read by some as a first sign.

The Catholic Church has been lobbying president Raul Castro to release political prisoners and news of the release came as Cuba's Catholic leader Cardinal Jaime Ortega was meeting the Spanish foreign minister.

Cardinal Ortega says another 47 prisoners will be released in the next few months.

"We are at a moment that we have to look at future with hope," he said.

"I believe this visit reaffirms the hope with respect to issues of the prisoners and everything that has to do with the advance of Cuba in the global context."

Spanish foreign minister Miguel Angel Moratinos says he visited Cuba to support the Church's efforts in getting dissidents freed.

"I believe we are very satisfied with work that Cuba's Catholic Church has been doing and we obviously hope that this work can bring results," he said.

"The Spanish government supports and follows all the activities and actions of Cardinal Ortega and the Catholic Church. We had a very good conversation."

Cuba has been facing renewed pressure to release dissidents since February when a political prisoner called Orlando Zapata Tamayo died from a hunger strike.

There are calls for Cuban authorities to release another political prisoner who has been on a hunger strike for 134 days before he succumbs to the same fate.

Laura Pollan, the wife of one of the prisoners, says the most important thing is to ensure the prisoners are released, particularly the sick ones.

"This is not the time for a meeting. It's time for releasing prisoners," she said.

"[Cuban human rights campaigner] Elizardo Sanchez has been imprisoned himself many times for speaking against the Communist government."

'Scores more prisoners'

But human rights groups say there are at least 100 more political prisoners who are not being released.

Human Rights Watch spokesman Daniel Wilkinson welcomes the release of the dissidents, but says Cuba needs to go further.

"These prisoners that they're talking of releasing were imprisoned in, most of them in 2003 under Fidel Castro," he said.

"But there are scores more political prisoners who have been locked up since Raul Castro took power.

"The local human rights groups have a list of some 160 plus individuals. But based on our research we think that there are more than that.

"Cuba has a system in place where you can be arrested for under legal provision that's absolutely Orwellian. It's called dangerousness.

"And under dangerousness you don't have to commit a crime to be sentenced. You just have to be perceived to be dangerous by the state."

Back in Cuba, Mr Sanchez says there is little real freedom for the political prisoners who are being released.

"We are seeing at least six prisoners who must leave for Spain with their families. That's like trading prison for exile," he said.

"We don't understand why if the government had made the decision to release prisoners, they would wait three or four months to open the doors for 47 prisoners.

"If the Cuban government is so powerful they can lock them up in minutes, we don't know what the government is after, keeping them behind bars."

The US embargo against Cuba has been standing for almost 50 years, but Mr Wilkinson doubts the release of the dissidents will soften relations between the two countries.

"It would be nice to think it's a step towards a new era, towards a real change in Cuba which would be good news for the entire country," he said.

"The problem is we've seen this before. This isn't the first time. When Pope John Paul visited the country in 1998 the Cuban government released more than 100 prisoners. There have been other interventions - Jimmy Carter, Jesse Jackson.

"The government makes a show of releasing prisoners but then does nothing to dismantle the repressive system, machinery it has in place to imprison people and it continues arresting more afterward."

Some of the prisoners who are being released are expected to seek asylum in the US.

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Backers Say Russian Inmate Torn by Possible Deal

MOSCOW — Until this week, Igor V. Sutyagin was being held in a prison camp not far from the Arctic Circle, near the site of what were some of Stalin’s most infamous gulags. His supporters say the location was apt, describing him as a political prisoner in Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia.

The Russian government, though, considers Mr. Sutyagin, 45, nothing more than a turncoat, a scientist who passed secrets about Russian weapons systems to the C.I.A.

After more than a decade behind bars, Mr. Sutyagin may be nearing release because he may be included in a possible prisoner exchange involving the 10 people arrested in the United States last month on charges of being part of a Russian espionage ring.

Now moved to a prison in Moscow, Mr. Sutyagin was said by his family and friends to be bewildered about the change. They said he did not want to leave in a spy swap, given that he had steadfastly denied engaging in espionage. But he feels that he has no choice.

“He basically has no other way out,” Ernst Chyorny, executive secretary of the Public Committee in Defense of Scientists in Moscow, said in an interview on Wednesday. “It is clear that otherwise, they will not free him under any other circumstances.”

Mr. Chyorny said Mr. Sutyagin had four years left on his sentence, but the authorities could punish him further by extending his term. He said Mr. Sutyagin had recently lost two appeals for early release.

Mr. Chyorny said that he went to the prison camp in Arkhangelsk, and that Mr. Sutyagin had not been physically or psychologically broken, despite often harsh treatment. He said Mr. Sutyagin had at times been put in solitary confinement.

Mr. Sutyagin, a former arms control researcher for the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies in Moscow, was convicted in 2004 of treason and espionage for selling information on nuclear submarines and missile warning systems to a British company that prosecutors said was a C.I.A. front. He said at his trial that he could not be convicted of espionage because he did not have access to state secrets.

The authorities have pressed Mr. Sutyagin to sign a confession, but he has refused. As part of the deal for his release, he signed one this week, but his lawyer said Wednesday that he did so only because he was under duress.

“This is what worries him most, that people will start to think, ‘They traded him for spies, so he must be a spy,’ ” the lawyer, Anna Stavitskaya, said in a radio interview. “He never admitted his guilt, and he doesn’t consider his conviction legal.”

She said a Russian passport was given to him at the prison in Moscow, and he was told he would soon be flown to Vienna and then London. She said he had not been allowed to shave, out of concern that he might commit suicide.

Mr. Sutyagin, who was arrested in 1999, was one of the most prominent in a series of academics who were put on trial in Russia for spying. The academics’ defenders called the charges fraudulent, saying that the F.S.B., the main successor to the K.G.B., was trying to reassert itself under Mr. Putin by creating a spy mania.

The arrests were seen as a warning signal from the security services that working with foreigners was dangerous.

Mr. Sutyagin was convicted in 2004 after many procedural twists. The first court that heard the case dismissed the charges as too vague. When it went back to court, his closed-door trial was disrupted midway when the judge and jury were replaced without explanation.

A new judge with a record of handling other accusations brought by the F.S.B. was assigned and refused to allow Mr. Sutyagin’s lawyers to present expert testimony showing that the information he handled was not secret.

Scholars and human rights groups in both Russia and abroad have taken up Mr. Sutyagin’s case.

Before his arrest, Mr. Sutyagin was a workaholic who often slept in a bed in his office and lived off instant noodles. He spent countless hours poring through books, journals and newspapers piecing together information about the Russian military arsenal.

“He had a tremendous passion for details,” said Pavel Podvig, a friend and fellow arms control researcher. “He wasn’t in this business for money or glory. He was glad to be able to do it because he found it very interesting.”

Mr. Podvig said that even if the British company that Mr. Sutyagin worked for did have intelligence connections, Mr. Sutyagin did not know it. “It was a strange kind of consultancy, and certainly he should have thought twice about working for them,” he said. “But he was really glad someone could use his knowledge and his expertise.”

Clifford J. Levy reported from Moscow, and Peter Baker from Washington.

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