Adding aerosols to the atmosphere will not counter global warming in all regions. Attempting to offset global warming by injecting sunlight-reflecting gases into the upper atmosphere isn't the quick fix for global climate change that advocates believe it might be, a new study finds. In a paper published today in Nature Geoscience1, Kate Ricke, a climate physicist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and her colleagues show, by modelling, that not only could solar-radiation management lead to declines in rainfall in the long term, but its effects will also vary by region. Some places will be over-cooled by atmospheric changes that are too small to be effective for their neighbours. The gases under consideration are sulphur compounds that would produce sulphate aerosols in the upper atmosphere. Geoengineering advocates have proposed injecting large quantities of these materials into the stratosphere, either by shooting them up in artillery shells or releasing them from high-flying aeroplanes. Once there, they would disperse into a thin, bright haze that would reflect enough sunlight back into space to partially or completely offset global warming. The goal would be to mimic the effects of volcanoes eruptions such as the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which blasted enough sulphates into the stratosphere to temporarily reduce the global temperature by nearly half a degree. Geoengineers propose mimicking this on ever-expanding scales, so that increasing levels of greenhouse gases are offset by ever-greater levels of sunlight reduction. The new study found that it is fairly easy to design sulphate-injection scenarios that keep the temperature stable until 2080. But, unfortunately, the change in sunlight alters other weather patterns. "It changes the distribution of energy in the troposphere so that it becomes more convectively stable," Ricke says. The result: decreasing precipitation. Regional effects are also important. For example, Ricke says, her study found that levels of sulphate that kept China closest to its baseline climate were so high that they made India cold and wet. Those that were best for India caused China to overheat. She notes, however, that both countries fared better either way than under a no-geoengineering policy. The modellers also found that all of these effects get worse with time. "The compensation is imperfect," Ricke says. "The longer you do it, the more imperfect it becomes." Thus, she says, this type of geoengineering is at best a temporary fix — something people working in the field had always known because it does nothing to prevent the accumulation of carbon dioxide and the resulting acidification of the oceans. "But it might be even more temporary than people had expected." Other scientists are impressed. "I think the paper is great," says Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, in Stanford, California. "I offered Kate a postdoc based on these results." Alan Robock, a geophysicist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, agrees. "It confirms that it is not possible to control both temperature and precipitation using stratospheric geoengineering," he says. The researchers used a global climate model, called HadCM3L, from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, UK. To run their simulations, however, they made use ofclimateprediction.net, a climate-forecasting experiment in which thousands of people volunteer to have their home computers do climate simulations when inactive. "This is something that people can sign up for on home computers that sit idle most of the day," Caldeira says. "When the computer notices it is idle for a while, it starts running climate models." ADVERTISEMENT Caldeira and Robock are impressed by the use of Climateprediction.net, but Caldeira points out that as the team only used one model, some of Ricke's specific findings, such as the details of the India–China disparity, might be model-specific. "I don't think climate modelling is at the point where we should trust one single model at that scale," Caldeira says. "But I think the results are robust in the sense that it's the kind of issue that people will need to face. The qualitative idea is that you're going to have differential results in different regions, and that's going to cause people to want different amounts of this stuff up there, if they want any of it up there at all." Ricke agrees. "We don't intend these results to give a definitive indication of what's going to happen," she says. "It's more an illustration of the type of regional effect you would see." Geoengineering can't please everyone
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A drop of microbicide gel is photographed as it is squeezed from an applicator at the Baragwanath hospital in Soweto, South Africa, Friday Oct. 28. (AP / Denis Farrell) Researchers at the International AIDS Conference in Vienna are claiming a huge victory, saying they have developed a vaginal gel that can significantly reduce a woman's risk of contracting HIV. Women in South Africa who volunteered to test the gel cut their chances of contracting the virus by 50 per cent after one year of use and 39 per cent after 2 1/2 years, compared to a gel that contained no medicine. The researchers also discovered that the gel cut in half the chances of getting HSV-2, the virus that causes genital herpes. Scientists call the gel a breakthrough in the search for a way to help women whose partners refuse to use condoms. "We are giving hope to women," Michel Sidibe, the executive director of the World Health Organization's UNAIDS program, said in a statement. A gel could "help us break the trajectory of the AIDS epidemic," he said. Mitchell Warren, executive director of the AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition, called it a "historic day for HIV prevention research." "We congratulate the trial sponsors, scientific collaborators, and partners who conducted this trial, and especially want to thank the nearly 900 South African women whose altruism and commitment as trial volunteers made this effort possible," Warren said in a news release. The gel is colourless and odourless and spiked with the AIDS antiretroviral drug, tenofovir. It's inserted into the vagina using an applicator that resembles a tampon applicator before and after intercourse. The trial of 889 women in both an urban community and a rural community showed that the women largely used the gel as directed, suggesting the product should work in the real world. Women who used the gel more consistently were much less likely to be infected. A survey revealed that 99 per cent of the women said they would use the gel consistently if they knew for sure that it prevented HIV. The gel also seemed safe; the only observed side effect was mild diarrhea. What's more, researchers say the gel is cheap: The microbicide is cheap to produce, and the gel itself cost only pennies. Even the applicator is inexpensive, at just 32 cents each. Nearly 20 years of research have gone into development of a vaginal gel that could be controlled by a woman. Researchers made their breakthrough after finding that in studies in monkeys, tenofovir appeared to protect against both vaginal and rectal HIV infection. Margaret Chan, director general of the WHO, described the findings as "exciting". "We look forward to seeing these results confirmed. Once they have been shown to be safe and effective, the WHO will work with countries and partners to accelerate access to these products," she said in a statement to the Vienna conference. About half the people living with HIV in the world are women. In sub-Saharan Africa, more women are infected than men. The researchers say they are optimistic that with further work, they can improve the microbicide gel's efficacy even further. Researchers are already working on another trial larger of the gel which will involve 5,000 women in South Africa, Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe, to further test the gel's safety and efficacy.AIDS breakthrough: vaginal gel helps block virus
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It was Roy Keane, of all people, who cooed last year that "all football managers are romantics." No, the smouldering Irishman was not suggesting that gaffers up and down the land spend their evenings trying to arrange the perfect bouquet of flowers, penning winsome verse or serenading sweet maidens under moonlit balconies. What he meant was that managers devote their lives to the pursuit of a dream. By way of classic example we could cite another Roy: Mr Hodgson. Hodgson's irrelevant playing career petered out when he was just 27 but his football dream didn't. Within months he took charge of Swedish small potatoes Halmstad, where the players, nearly half of whom were older than him, initially viewed him the same sort of suspicion that veteran boozers eye teenage teetotalers. Once he explained his vision and method, however, they were convinced – and, hey presto, that season the presumed relegation certainties won the league for the first time in their history! Hodgson the Wandering Conjurer has performed similar tricks all over Europe ever since, with very few mishaps en route (Kevin Davies to Blackburn was the rabbit that died in the hat), and all that magic and dream-chasing finally paid off earlier this month when the 62-year-old was appointed to what he calls "the biggest job in football". There is, of course, a grave risk that the position of Liverpool manager will mutate into a nightmare, what with the club still being in the clutches of Duke and Duke from Trading Places, Fernando Torres breaking down more often than peace talks in the Middle East and the whole mood about Anfield being about as uplifting as a grand piano dropped from a great height. But where there is Hodgson, there is hope. Joe Cole listened to his dream, and now he's a believer. And that, in turn, appears to have converted $tevie Mbe too. "Joe has proved his ability over many years in the Premier League - sometimes against us - so it will be fantastic to play alongside him in a red shirt for Liverpool," hurrahed Mbe. "I wanted the chance to meet Roy Hodgson privately and having done so, I'm very impressed with his plans for the future," added the England captain, who, in fairness, had already moved to dampen speculation linking him with moves to the likes of Real Madrid ... by performing like an incorrigible galoot at the World Cup. "A brief statement on the Galatasaray website on Monday said that the 31-year-old would officially sign the deal after a routine medical" - in what is almost certainly the greatest misuse of the word 'routine' in the history of journalism, Reuters break the news that knack-prone Sheilaroo Harry Kewell is about to ink a one-year contract extension in Turkey. Click here to find out more. "Re: Roy Hodgson's tactics (yesterday's Fiver). If Selfridges can do a Christmas tree formation in August why can't Roy?" - John McLaren. "Re: the Capello Index (yesterday's Fiver). I wonder if a blazer at the FA will return from his summer holiday and take 12 minutes to inform Mr Capello that his actions have undermined his standing with the team and that he is being demoted to trainer. A queue of unsuitable backroom staff can then take it in turns to be manager dependent upon injury and pecking order" - Ian Richards. "The 'revolution' Mike Hopkin speaks of (yesterday's Fiver letters) doesn't bear close scrutiny. The Australia Act 1986 may well have purported to end all Westminster's 'colonial powers' over the Lucky Country. But this statute itself was passed by the UK parliament. What the British parliament can give, it can also take away. It's not exactly the Boston Tea Party. When you have your referendum and/or declare independence properly come speak to us again, pal" - Davorder Griffiths. "Re: your Liverpool signing Joe Cole/Simply Red link. I wasn't going to write in but Something Got Me Started. Now that Liverpool fans have A New Flame the Men and Women of that fine city will be reaching once more for the Stars. Children will collect photos of Joe Cole to put in their Picture Book, life will be Simplified once more. Someone stop me. Come to My Aid. Please" - Dexter Varley. Send your letters to the.boss@guardian.co.uk. And if you've nothing better to do you can also tweet the Fiver now. Tottenham claim they've banned vuvuzelas because their high-pitched drone could drown out the sound of "important emergency safety announcements". Arsenal, meanwhile, are doing the same to preserve the "enjoyment and safety of supporters on matchdays, which is of paramount importance to the club". Free agent, Beluga-whale-lookalike and non-impact-making former Aston Villa impact substitute Marlon Harewood has been offered a two-year deal with the Pope's O'Rangers. Derby County manager Nigel Clough has denied reports linking striker Rob Hulse with a £1m move to Premier League side Blackpool. Yes, Premier League side Blackpool. It still sounds weird, doesn't it? Strap on your shinpads and clamber aboard the Pain Train - it's the Mark van Bommel Gallery. Barney Ronay took time out from lovingly carving 'BR+JC' into a tree-trunk to rattle out this 908-word paean to new Liverpool recruit Joe Cole. Hankering after some half-hearted pre-season kickabout action featuring Arsenal, the Queen's Celtic, Lyon and AC Milan? We've tickets for the Emirates Cup to give away. Want your very own copy of our free tea-timely(ish) email sent direct to your inbox? Has your regular copy stopped arriving? Click here to sign up.guardian.co.uk's tea-time take on the world of football
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Steve Jobs, Apple's chief executive, has come under fire from more mobile manufacturers, following his attempt to say the iPhone 4's reception problems are not unique to his company's device. Yesterday the Telegraph reported thatRIM and Nokia hit back at Apple's defence of iPhone 4 and now Samsung, HTC and Motorola have all condemned Mr Jobs for saying that the antenna issue affecting the iPhone 4 is "a challenge for the whole industry". During a press conference at Apple's Californian headquarters on Friday, Mr Jobs attempted to highlight the reception deficiencies of phones made by RIM, Samsung, HTC and Nokia, showing "evidence" from the BlackBerry Bold 9700, HTC Droid Eris, and Samsung Omnia II. "The reception problems are certainly not common among smartphones," HTC CFO Hui-Meng Chengtold the Wall Street Journal, adding "[Apple] apparently didn't give operators enough time to test the phone." Motorola's co-CEO Sanjay Jha has also told the Wall Street Journal that his company's labs have also been able to demonstrate that the iPhone 4 suffers from greater attenuation than equivalent phones when held. RIM's co-chief executives Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsille said over the weekend: "Apple's attempt to draw RIM into Apple's self-made debacle is unacceptable. Apple's claims about RIM products appear to be deliberate attempts to distort the public's understanding of an antenna design issue and to deflect attention from Apple's difficult situation." Mr Jobs has apologised to disgruntled Apple customers and promised to give away a free case with every iPhone 4 sold until September. The RIM executives added: "One thing is for certain, RIM's customers don't need to use a case for their BlackBerry to maintain proper connectivity." Nokia has also launched a strident defence of its phones. The company said: "We prioritise antenna performance over physical design if they are ever in conflict."More phonemakers condemn Apple's defence of iPhone 4
HTC, Samsung and Motorola have joined Nokia and BlackBerry-makers Research in Motion in hitting back at Apple's attempt to claim that the reception problems afflicting its new iPhone are an industry-wide phenomenon.
British Airways cabin crew have rejected the airline's latest "final" pay offer by 3,419 votes to 1,686. Almost half the 11,000 affected Unite union members voted on BA's offer of a 2.9% pay rise next year with 3% the year after. The no vote raises the prospect of new strikes in a dispute which has roots stretching back to before Christmas. Unite urged BA to hold fresh talks. BA said it was "encouraged" by the result and called on Unite to end the dispute. It also said the union had lost the moral authority to represent the views of cabin crew. But the joint-leader of the Unite union, Tony Woodley, said that the result suggested 85% of BA's staff were not happy with the offer, although he accepted that the turnout had been low. He said the time had come for further talks. "Lets get round the table - lets solve the problem. Now this offer has been rejected lets 'jaw jaw' and not 'war war' with Willie Walsh." Despite Mr Woodley's emphasis on fresh talks, he did not rule out another ballot for a strike. Since March, the union has taken strike action on 22 days in a bitter industrial dispute that has cost BA more than £150m. The BA proposal had also included other elements, including a promise not to victimise staff who have taken part in the often-bitter dispute and a partial re-instatement of staff travel benefits. Unite did not give its members a guiding opinion on the offer, leaving them to make up their own minds. However, one of its cabin crew branches, Bassa, had broken down the various elements of the proposed settlement into two lists, of "good" and "bad" points. It had viewed as "good" the actual pay offer, the promise that work at Gatwick airport could be increased, and the promise of non-victimisation of workers caught up in disciplinary cases. It had also welcomed the pledge to partially reinstate of staff travel, although this has become the most hotly contested element and also makes it on to the "bad" list - because the promise is only for partial restoration of these. Before the industrial action, staff built up rights to discounted flights which grew with their length of service. BA has withdrawn the long-service element of these for workers who took action, meaning they have lost perks acquired over the years. Other "bad" points cited by Bassa included the "vastly reduced" terms and conditions for new staff, and what it says is continued dismissal of staff in what it calls a "disproportionate and unfair way". The airline views the changes to new recruits' conditions as crucial to its future success as it battles against other carriers whose staff are cheaper to employ. It says it must cut costs substantially to return to profit. In May, BA reported its biggest annual loss since it was privatised in 1987 - £531m ($788m) in the 12 months to March. The dispute started last year over BA's plans to cut costs by reducing the number of cabin crew on aircraft, but the row intensified after the airline withdrew travel concessions from staff who went on strike. Relations worsened after BA took disciplinary action against union members as a result of the dispute, including a number of sackings which Unite now says have reached double figures.BA cabin crew reject latest pay offer
In a statement, BA said: "We are encouraged by the result of this ballot which shows that 73% of our cabin crew did not reject our offer."The number of votes cast - just over 5,000 - represented less than half of the unionised cabin crew and was well below previous ballots that saw more than 70% of them express their views.
Baroness Manningham-Buller added that the decision to remove Saddam Hussein had caused a "long-term major and strategic problem" for Britain by allowing al-Qaeda time to build a stronghold in Afghanistan unnopposed. She told the inquiry: "Our involvement in Iraq radicalised, for want of a better word, a whole generation of young people - not a whole generation, a few among a generation - who saw our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan as being an attack on Islam… “Arguably we gave Osama bin Laden his Iraqi jihad so that he was able to move into Iraq in a way that he was not before.” The inquiry chairman, Sir John Chilcot, released a memo written by Baroness Manningham-Buller in March 2002, in which she warned the Government that declaring war on Iraq would increase the threat of terrorist attacks in the UK. The note made clear that MI5 did not regard Iraq as a significant terrorist threat to British interests before the war, and had discounted any link between Saddam Hussein and the 9/11 attacks on the US. Baroness Manningham-Buller, then deputy director-general of the Security Service, also revealed that MI5 refused to provide evidence for the Government's now-infamous dossier on Saddam's military capability because it doubted the credibility of the information. "We were asked to put in some low-grade, small intelligence to it and we refused because we didn't think it was reliable," she said. She said the intelligence on Iraqi WMD - most of which came from the Secret Intelligence Service, MI6 - used to justify the invasion had been "fragmentary" and did not justify the weight placed upon it. "If you are going to go to war, you need a pretty high threshold, it seems to me, to decide on that and I think there is very few who would argue that the intelligence was not substantial enough on which to make that decision," she said. She said the decision to go to war in Iraq meant that insufficient attention was paid to Afghanistan. "By focusing on Iraq we reduced the focus on the al Qaida threat in Afghanistan. I think that was a long-term major and strategic problem," she said.Iraq war increased terrorist threat to the UK, former MI5 chief tells Chilcot Inquiry
The war in Iraq led to a huge increase in the terrorist threat to the UK, the former head of MI5 has told the Iraq Inquiry.
A teenager from Lancashire who fell seven floors from a Spanish holiday apartment remains in a critical but stable condition in hospital. Grace Ford, 17, who recently completed her A-levels at Kirkham Grammar School, near Blackpool, fell from the balcony in Magaluf, Majorca, on Saturday. She suffered multiple injuries in the fall at the Torrenova Playa hotel. Edward Soppet, 18, of Buckinghamshire, is due in court accused of failing to help in connection with the accident. Mr Soppet was arrested after the incident and later released, but will appear before a judge in Palma, the island's capital, on Monday. Grace, form Greenhalgh near Blackpool, was in an indoor patio area in the beach-front apartment complex when she fell from the window, Spanish police said. Her parents - Chris and Susan - have flown out to the island to visit her at the Son Dureta University Hospital in Palma, where she is receiving treatment. The sixth form pupil broke her pelvis, both legs and an arm in the fall in the early hours of Saturday. A spokeswoman described her injuries as "very serious" and described her condition as critical. Grace's brother told the BBC she had been placed in an induced coma and was in a stable condition. Ms Ford is understood to have been visiting the island with a group of sixth-form friends from the fee-paying school.Majorca holiday plunge girl still critical
The former head of MI5's evidence to the Chilcot panel is a savage indictment of the Blair administration and its advisers In straightforward, devastating testimony, Eliza Manningham-Buller told the Chilcot inquiry how she had warned about what sensible – but mostly frightened to speak out – senior Whitehall officials believed in 2003: that the invasion of Iraq would increase the terrorist threat to the UK. More than once, the former head of MI5 emphasised to the Chilcot inquiry that the invasion exacerbated the terrorist threat to the UK and was a "highly significant" factor in how "home-grown" extremists justified their actions. "Our involvement in Iraq radicalised a few among a generation of young people who saw [it] as an attack upon Islam," she said. Manningham-Buller said she was therefore not surprised that UK citizens were involved in the 7/7 suicide attacks in London or by the increase in the number of Britons "attracted to the ideology of Osama bin Laden" who saw the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan as threatening their co-religionists and the Muslim world". The invasion of Iraq "undoubtedly" increased the terrorist threat in Britain, she said. There was no evidence of any link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida – not even the CIA believed that – Manningham-Buller reminded the inquiry as she pointed to the alternative agenda-driven "intelligence service" set up at the Pentagon by Donald Rumsfeld. Arguably, she added, it was the US and Britain who, by invading Iraq, "gave Osama bin Laden the Iraqi jihad". Joint Intelligence Committee assessments warned ministers that an invasion would increase the threat to Britain. If they read them, she said, they would have been in no doubt. She warned Home Office ministers and officials of the consequences of an invasion but, in a pointed remark, suggested she rarely saw Tony Blair in one-to-one meetings. She added: "The head of SIS [MI6] saw him more frequently than I did". And what did Sir Richard Dearlove, the head of MI6, tell Blair about the alleged weapons of mass destruction threat posed by Saddam? We still do not know. Manningham-Buller referred more than once to Sir David Omand, the government's security and intelligence coordinator at the time, who gave evidence to Chilcot earlier this year. MI6 had "over-promised and under-delivered" when it came to Iraq, Omand said. She was asked what lessons had been learned from the invasion, and replied: "The danger of over-reliance on fragmentary intelligence in deciding whether or not to go to war. Very few would argue that the intelligence was substantial enough to make that decision." That is a savage indictment of the Blair administration and its advisers who, unlike Manningham-Buller, kept mum at the time.Iraq inquiry: Eliza Manningham-Buller's devastating testimony
Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill has said questions being asked about the Lockerbie bomber are matters for the UK government. Prime Minister David Cameron is to meet US senators to discuss allegations BP lobbied for his release. Mr MacAskill said he refused a bid to move Abelbaset Ali al-Megrahi to a Libyan jail under a prisoner transfer agreement between the UK and Libya. Instead he released him on health grounds due to his terminal cancer. A prisoner transfer request was made by Libya in May 2009, less than a week after a treaty allowing prisoners to be transferred was ratified. However, Mr MacAskill stressed that when he released al-Megrahi in August last year it was not under that deal. "We can understand the questions that are being asked in the United States regarding oil and what may or may not have been done by the British government," he said. "These relate to the prisoner transfer agreement, to the application made by Mr al-Megrahi. "I refused that because I too had concerns as to what may or may not have been done and whether it had been made an assurance to families that he would serve his sentence here." He said he could understand the questions being raised by the US Secretary of State and senators. "But these are questions that have to be answered by the British government," he said. "It was the British government that perhaps did a deal in the desert but that will be for them to state and for the senators to discover."Lockerbie questions 'for British government'
BP has admitted lobbying the UK government in 2007 over a prisoner transfer agreement (PTA) with Libya, but denied specifically discussing the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing.Senators from New York and New Jersey want to meet Mr Cameron over the release of al-Megrahi.
